Anmerkungen:
Zusammenfassung in englischer Sprache
Beschreibung:
Über die Methoden, die in anderen Industriestaaten bei der Steuerschätzung angewandt werden, ist in Deutschland sehr wenig bekannt. Es gibt weder einschlägige Literatur, noch findet ein Informationsaustausch zwischen den Steuerschätzern der einzelnen Staaten statt. Um die bestehende Informationslücke zu schließen, hat das Bundesfinanzministerium das ifo Institut mit der Erstellung eines Gutachtens zum Thema "Methoden der Steuerschätzung im internationalen Vergleich" beauftragt. Im Ergebnis zeigte der Vergleich der Methoden der Steuerschätzung eine Reihe von Unterschieden zwischen den Praktiken der Länder auf. Dies beinhaltet zunächst die institutionelle Zuordnung und damit die Unabhängigkeit der Steuerschätzung. Bezüglich des organisatorischen Rahmens und der Vorgehensweise gibt es weniger deutliche Unterschiede. Des Weiteren differieren die Transparenz und Dokumentation. Zusammenfassend offenbart der internationale Vergleich der Methoden der Steuerschätzung unterschiedliche Anforderungen und Herangehensweisen in den Ländern. Eine überlegene Schätzmethodik ist dabei nicht auszumachen. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen aber die Bedeutung der Unabhängigkeit der Steuerschätzung für die Qualität der Prognosen.
Little is known in Germany about the methods of revenue forecasting that are employed in other countries. Hence, this report compares 14 revenue forecasts across 12 industrialized countries with respect to institutional and methodological aspects and their impacts on the quality of forecasts. The international comparison reveals a range of differences between the approaches that are used in the analyzed countries. A first point is the institutional arrangement and thereby the independence of forecasts. Some countries increase independence by consulting external experts, either when the revenue forecast itself or the underlying macroeconomic forecast is prepared. Other countries delegate the revenue forecast to research institutes. Regarding the organizational framework there are fewer differences. Only the time span between forecast and the forecasted period differs considerably. Concerning the methodology there are more or less similar approaches in use. Indirect methods are principally employed, where the forecast is a function of macroeconomic variables, such as GDP or consumption. Among these methods, which are predominantly used for taxes being strongly dependent on economic circumstances (as income and corporation taxes), methods using elasticities turn out to be the most popular ones. In contrast, direct methods, that use data of the respective tax from previous years to predict the expected revenue, are used particularly for taxes that are less dependent on the economic situation (as excise taxes). Changes in tax law are usually taken into account. Most countries underestimate revenues, but just in one case at a significant level. The quality of forecasts measured by means of the size of the prediction error differs notably at first sight. A more precise analysis, however, shows that more than two thirds of the differences in accuracy regarding the whole revenues can be explained by differences in the tax structure, the time span, and the degree of independence. A more differentiated tax structure has a considerable positive effect on the accuracy. Also a forecast taking place closer to the forecasted period is accompanied with smaller estimation errors. Concerning the independence another positive effect on the accuracy can be observed.