Rittich, Jacob Christian
[VerfasserIn]
;
Schultze-Gerlach, Thomas
[AkademischeR BetreuerIn];
Waldmann, Michael
[AkademischeR BetreuerIn]
Erkennung und Korrektur von Urteilsfehlern bei eigenen Urteilen und beim Umgang mit Ratschlägen: Ein hierarchischer Sampling-Ansatz
= Detection and correction of errors in own judgments and in advice taking: A hierarchical sampling-model
Beschreibung:
Quantitative Urteile, wie Prognose- oder Schätzaufgaben, liegen vielen wichtigen Entscheidungen zugrunde. Deshalb ist es wichtig, dass Menschen bei solchen Urteilen ihre Fehler frühzeitig erkennen und korrigieren, was das übergeordnete Ziel dieser Dissertation war. In einer Serie von insgesamt acht Studien zeigte sich robuste Evidenz dafür, dass Menschen in der Lage sind, die Richtung ihrer eigenen Fehler zu erkennen (ob sie zu hoch oder zu niedrig geschätzt haben), aber Schwierigkeiten haben, diese im Anschluss mit der Hilfe von Interventionen zu korrigieren. Zudem konnte eine angepasste V...
Quantitative judgments, such as forecasting and estimation tasks, underlie many important decisions. Hence, it is important that people detect and correct their errors early on in such judgments, which was the overarching goal of this dissertation. A series of eight studies provided robust evidence that people are able to detect the direction of their own errors (whether they guessed too high or too low), but that they have difficulties correcting them in a second step with the help of interventions. Moreover, an adjusted version of this intervention failed to enable people to make better use of advice that could point either in the right or wrong direction. First positive evidence was found for an intervention variant in an individual judgment context with historic estimation tasks (“In which year was…?”). In these tasks, subjects were able to improve their judgments when they were explicitly instructed to make only small corrections of their judgments. Last, a meta-analysis across all studies showed robust evidence for a hierarchical sampling-model that explains under which circumstances people can detect the direction of their errors and under which they cannot.