• Medientyp: E-Artikel
  • Titel: DIW economic outlook
  • Beteiligte: Fichtner, Ferdinand [VerfasserIn]; Baldi, Guido [VerfasserIn]; Bremus, Franziska [VerfasserIn]; Brenke, Karl [VerfasserIn]; Dreger, Christian [VerfasserIn]; Engerer, Hella [VerfasserIn]; Große Steffen, Christoph [VerfasserIn]; Junker, Simon [VerfasserIn]; Michelsen, Claus [VerfasserIn]; Pijnenburg, Katharina [VerfasserIn]; Podstawski, Maximilian [VerfasserIn]; Rieth, Malte [VerfasserIn]; Ulbricht, Dirk [VerfasserIn]; van Deuverden, Kristina [VerfasserIn]
  • Erschienen: Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), 2015
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • ISSN: 2192-7219
  • Schlagwörter: business cycle forecast ; F01 ; E32 ; economic outlook ; E66
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  • Beschreibung: The German economy is on track, and will likely grow by 1.8 percent this year; in the coming year, with a slight increase in dynamics, it will grow by 1.9 percent. With these figures DIW Berlin confirms its forecast from this summer. Employment growth continues; the unemployment rate will decrease this year to 6.4 percent, where it will remain in 2016. Due to the sharp drop in oil prices this year, inflation is low and stands at 0.4 percent; next year it will climb to 1.4 percent. Global economic growth is likely to experience a slight increase during the forecast period. In the industrialized countries in particular, the renewed drop in energy prices keeps inflation rates low. In addition, many countries have experienced steady improvements in labor markets. Together, these two factors support consumption and the purchasing power of households. Recovery in the euro area is moving forward. The euro's external value is low, the monetary policy is very expansionary, and major trading partners are growing vigorously; consumption is likely to develop well, and in the course of time, corporate investment is also expected to recover. In the emerging markets, growth will remain subdued this year. Higher financial market volatility is leading to deterioration in financing conditions. They are expected to contribute more to global growth next year, when for example Russia and Brazil have emerged from recession. German exports continue their upward trend: A strong upturn in major industrial countries, as well as the continued recovery within the euro area, are compensating for the somewhat weaker demand from the emerging countries. In net terms, however, foreign trade barely contributes to growth, because imports will increase significantly as part of the dynamic domestic economy. Consumption is supporting the growth of the German economy. The low inflation substantially supports consumers' purchasing power. But nominal incomes are also experiencing strong increases: The employment growth continues - the number of ...
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