Beschreibung:
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">NWS</jats:styled-content>) flash flood warnings are issued by Weather Forecast Offices and are underpinned by information from the Flash Flood Guidance (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FFG</jats:styled-content>) system operated by the River Forecast Centers (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">RFC</jats:styled-content>s). This study focuses on the quantitative evaluation and limitations of the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FFG</jats:styled-content> system using reported flash flood cases in 2010 and 2011. The flash flood reports were obtained from the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">NWS</jats:styled-content> Storm Event database for the Arkansas‐Red Basin <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">RFC</jats:styled-content> (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">ABRFC</jats:styled-content>). The current <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FFG</jats:styled-content> system at the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">ABRFC</jats:styled-content> provides gridded flash flood guidance (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">GFFG</jats:styled-content>) system using the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">NWS</jats:styled-content> Hydrology Laboratory‐Research Distributed Hydrologic Model to translate the upper zone soil moisture to estimates of Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. Comparisons of the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">GFFG</jats:styled-content> and real‐time Multisensor Precipitation Estimator‐derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimate for the same duration and location were used to analyze the success of the system. Typically, the six‐hour duration was characterized by higher probability of detection values than the three‐hour duration, which highlights the difficulty of hydrologic process estimation for shorter time scales. The current system does not take into account physical characteristics such as land use, including irrigated agricultural farm and urban areas, hence, overly dry soil moisture estimates over these areas can lower the success rate of the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">GFFG</jats:styled-content> product.</jats:p>